Flat In Asia

WTI is +$0.30 and Brent is unch., with the benchmarks operating around the lower end of their respective Thursday ranges at typing.

• Both benchmarks are on track for their steepest weekly decline since Mar ’20, having backed away from recent 14-year highs as embargoes on Russian crude exports have been less extensive than previously feared (i.e. only the U.S. and the UK have adopted such measures, while Europe remains undecided), while participants continue to assess the prospect of Venezuelan and Iranian oil being reintroduced to global markets.
• On the latter issue, negotiations re: an Iranian nuclear deal have shown cracks, with Iranian officials accusing the U.S. on Thursday of making “unreasonable offers” and applying “unjustified pressure to hastily reach an agreement”. Iranian FM Amirabdollahian has since dialled down rhetoric by stating that a nuclear deal was still “within reach if “U.S. acts realistically and consistently”, although uncertainty re: the prospects of a successful deal remains elevated.
• Confirmation of a drone attack on a Saudi refinery in early Asian hours saw little movement in crude prices, with authorities stating that the refinery’s operations and supplies of petroleum were unaffected.
• From a technical perspective, the trend direction for crude remains upwards, with the sharp pullback this week seen as allowing for overbought conditions to unwind. Resistance for WTI and Brent is situated at the 50.0% retracement of Wednesday’s range, at $115.24 and $117.73 respectively, while support is seen at $101.80 (20-day EMA) for WTI and $104.23 (20-day EMA) for Brent.