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Flight To Safety Dominates

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have rallied aggressively through the day as the breadth of the Russian invasion becomes apparent, although yields have pulled back recently off new session lows on Stoltenberg saying NATO has no plays to deploy troops to Ukraine.
  • 2YY -11.8bps at 1.484%, 5YY -11.6bps at 1.780%, 10YY -11.5bps at 1.877% and 30YY -10.8bps at 2.186%, leaving the curve relatively unchanged with 2s10s at 39bps.
  • TYH2 is up 0-27 on the day at 127-04 on double the average volumes. It’s just off session highs of 127-12+ having briefly cleared resistance of 127-09 (Feb 22 high) after which it could open 127-24 (Feb 4 high).
  • Fedspeak: Heavy schedule with Barkin (2024 voter), Bostic (2024), Mester (2022), Daly (2024) and Waller (permanent), watched eagerly.
  • Data: The second Q4 GDP print is the pick today along with other more second tier releases.
  • NY Fed buy-op: Tsy 0Y-22.5Y, appr $6.225B (1030ET)
  • Note issuance: US Tsy $50B 7Y note auction (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $45B 4W, $35B 8W bill auctions (1130ET)
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