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Focus on ADP Private Employment Data

US TSYS
  • Treasuries are running mildly lower, inside a relatively narrow overnight range ahead of this morning's ADP private employment data at 0815ET, a precursor to Friday's headline employment report (Bbg mean survey est at +185k vs. +175k prior).
  • Later this morning, S&P Global US Services & Composite PMIs are released at 0945ET followed by flash ISM Services data at 1000ET. US Treasury auctions $60B 17W bills at 1130ET.
  • Of note, the Bank of Canada rate announcement is at 0945ET, the ECB announces tomorrow at 0815ET.
  • Cash yields are currently running mildly higher: 2s +.0165 at 4.7868%, 10s +.0175 at 4.3435%, 30s +.0112 at 4.4847%, while curves look mildly flatter: 2s10s -0.091 at -44.546, 5s30s -0.973 at 11.696.
  • Sep'24 10Y Treasury futures are currently -2 at 109-30.5 vs. 110-02.5 high during early Asia hours. After breaching technical resistance of 110-04.5 (1.0% 10-dma envelope) to 110-05 high yesterday, focus is on 110-09 (High May 16 and the bull trigger). On the flipside, any resumption of bearish activity would instead refocus attention on support at 107-31.
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