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Focus On April IPCA Inflation Data Tomorrow

BRAZIL
  • Last night, the Senate passed a bill that unlocks BRL 15.7bn ($3.1b) in expenses this year. The bill was approved in a 41-28 vote. On the political front today, Finance Minister Haddad is due to give an interview to Broadcast and Estadao at 1900BST(1500ET).
  • In terms of the macro data, the calendar is light today, with focus turning to tomorrow’s IPCA inflation data for April, where analysts expect the headline rate to decline to 3.66% y/y, from 3.93%.
  • Meanwhile, next Tuesday’s Copom minutes will be of particular interest given the split vote in last night’s Selic rate decision. To recap, four members of the nine member committee voted for a larger 50bp move, while the majority voted for 25bp. All four of these members had been appointed by the government and the minutes will be scrutinised for the reasons underpinning their vote.
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