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Focus on August Employ Data

US TSYS
Tsys trading mildly weaker, low end narrow range with 30Y Bond leading move ahead eagerly awaited August employ report ahead extended holiday weekend:
  • August nonfarm payroll survey change median is +725k on a range of 400k to 1M, with average 707k and standard deviation 137k (suggesting a 570k to 844k figure would be roughly within expectations). Current "whisper" estimate from Bbg: +677k.
  • According to JPM: "All U.S. payroll releases since 2007 that coincided with an early market close before the U.S. July 4th holiday the Treasury market is 1.5 times to 2 times more volatile than the average payrolls report day."
  • Tsy yield curves modestly steeper (5s30s +.339 at 113.445), overnight trade volumes rather modest (TYZ<165k). EGBs little weaker as well, sov spds wider w/Bund/BTP +1.8 at 107.1/mid.
  • Equities not far off new all-time highs overnight (ESU1 4545.75) Gold gaining (+3.65), US$ near steady (DXY 92.234).
  • Two-way overnight flow say slightly better prop and fast$ selling intermediates during early London hours, some option trades in 5Y puts.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.2bps at 0.208%, 5-Yr is up 1.4bps at 0.7788%, 10-Yr is up 1.7bps at 1.3004%, and 30-Yr is up 1.7bps at 1.914%.
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