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Focus On Banxico Minutes Next Week

MEXICO
  • USDMXN is trading modestly higher so far in Thursday’s session (+0.25% at the time of writing), after a sell-off yesterday which saw the pair briefly trading at the lowest level since 2015. The recent break of support at 16.6468, the Mar 14 low and bear trigger, maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, suggesting scope for a move to 16.4218, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 16.9473, the Mar 19 low.
  • On the data front, the domestic calendar is empty today, with attention turning to March PMI data and the latest Banxico economist survey early next week.
  • On Thursday, the central bank will also publish the minutes to its recent MPC meeting, when it started its easing cycle with a 25bp cut. The decision was not unanimous, with one member voting to keep rates on hold. JP Morgan note that the hawkish positioning was channelled through this dissenter and believe that the minutes will unveil a more balanced (slightly hawkish) discussion. However, they expect the neutral-to-dovish views to prevail, paving the way for back-to-back cuts throughout the year and reaching 9.5% by December.
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