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Focus On Friday's Feb Jobs Data

US TSYS
Rates held steady to mildly mixed after the close Thursday, relative calm ahead Friday's Feb employment data (+415k est vs. +467k prior), geopol headlines tied to Russia war in Ukraine kept markets on edge, however.
  • Tsys holding modest gains across most of the curve, short end weaker as prospect of rate hikes revitalized following Fed Chairman Powell's two-day policy testimony on the Hill. Note, lead Eurodollar futures EDH2 under heavy pressure late: -.0975 to 99.2575 as prospect of 50bp liftoff climbed ahead Fri's Feb employ data.
  • Stocks gapped off lows early in the second half amid headlines over third round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine with the possibility of a cease fire. Russian officials expressed "support for humanitarian corridors for civilians" and agreeing on "possible ceasefire around those corridors".
  • Crude oil prices fell back after reports that the return of Iranian supplies to an extremely tight market is near, after the Brent 1st future earlier stopped just short of hitting $120/bbl.
  • Policy tie-in: Fed Chairman Powell at Senate testimony: "WHAT MATTERS FOR INFLATION IS HOW LONG OIL PRICE RISE LASTS ... $10 RISE IN OIL IS ABOUT 2 TENTHS ON INFLATION AS A RULE OF THUMB" Bbg. This yet again brings up potential of stagflation as inflation soars but the Fed does not raise rates as economy growth slows. Stay tuned.
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