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Focus on Germany Ifo for Next Directional Impetus

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Positive risk driven trade took EUR/USD to an extended high of $1.1906 into the NY session before momentum stalled.
  • Corrective pullback picked up decent pace following release of stronger than forecast US PMI data, with some pointing to position adjustments ahead of this week's US Thanksgiving holiday.
  • Reports that the Democrat party to sound out Janet Yellen for the Treasury Secretary post also provided a boost for the USD.
  • EUR/USD dropped to $1.1800, recovered to $1.1848 before closing the day around $1.1840.
  • Early consolidation in Asia before rate picked up demand to edge it to $1.1855, holding around $1.1850 into Europe.
  • Focus on Germany GDP(0700GMT, median -4.1%yy, 8.2%qq) ahead of Germany Ifo (0900GMT, median Curr.Ass. 87.5; Expect. 93.5; Buis.Clim. 90.2).
  • ECB speakers Rehn(dove), Schnabel(1300GMT). Lagarde (dove) speaks(1400GMT), Lane(dove) 1745GMT.
  • Thursday US holiday may prompt US corporate month-end value USD demand(might have seen some already) which could provide a counter to EUR/USD appreciation.
  • Support $1.1835, $1.1800. Resistance $1.1863/66, $1.1880, $1.1906/20.
  • MNI Techs: Monday price action undermines the bullish outlook however also reinforces importance of the bull trigger at 1.1920, Nov 9 high. A breach here to expose the 1.2000 handle once again. Key support remains 1.1746, Nov 11 low.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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