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Focus on Thursday's CPI Inflation Data

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures hold mostly higher after the bell, curves flatter with the short end lagging better long end support (2s10s -1.769 at -35.027, 5s30s -1.335 at 23.026).
  • Nothing really new coming from the Fed chairman earlier as he continued to strike a balanced stance that leans slightly dovish: "YOU DON'T WANT TO WAIT UNTIL INFLATION GETS ALL THE WAY TO 2% TO EASE POLICY" while "WE WANT TO HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE, WHICH MEANS MORE GOOD INFLATION READINGS," Bbg.
  • Tsys slipped to session lows into the London close but rebounded soon after. Futures bounced back near early session highs after the $39B 10Y auction re-open (91282CKQ3) stops .9bp through: 4.276% high yield vs. 4.285% WI; 2.58x bid-to-cover vs. 2.67x prior.
  • Sep'24 10Y futures are currently +2.5 at 110-15.5 vs. 110-20 high -- just off Friday's 110-20.5 high. Key short-term resistance at 111-01 - the June 14th high, remains intact for now.
  • Focus remains on Thursday's June CPI inflation data. Consensus sees core CPI at 0.2% M/M in June after the softer than expected 0.16% M/M in May (vs cons 0.3), with a mild skew toward a “high” 0.2%, per MNI’s compilation of sell-side previews.
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  • Treasury futures hold mostly higher after the bell, curves flatter with the short end lagging better long end support (2s10s -1.769 at -35.027, 5s30s -1.335 at 23.026).
  • Nothing really new coming from the Fed chairman earlier as he continued to strike a balanced stance that leans slightly dovish: "YOU DON'T WANT TO WAIT UNTIL INFLATION GETS ALL THE WAY TO 2% TO EASE POLICY" while "WE WANT TO HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE, WHICH MEANS MORE GOOD INFLATION READINGS," Bbg.
  • Tsys slipped to session lows into the London close but rebounded soon after. Futures bounced back near early session highs after the $39B 10Y auction re-open (91282CKQ3) stops .9bp through: 4.276% high yield vs. 4.285% WI; 2.58x bid-to-cover vs. 2.67x prior.
  • Sep'24 10Y futures are currently +2.5 at 110-15.5 vs. 110-20 high -- just off Friday's 110-20.5 high. Key short-term resistance at 111-01 - the June 14th high, remains intact for now.
  • Focus remains on Thursday's June CPI inflation data. Consensus sees core CPI at 0.2% M/M in June after the softer than expected 0.16% M/M in May (vs cons 0.3), with a mild skew toward a “high” 0.2%, per MNI’s compilation of sell-side previews.