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FOMC Minutes: Little Insight On Balance Sheet Drawdown

US TSYS
Tsy futures making modest gains after the bell, back near top end of the range again after making appr 2-3 round trips on the session. Couple bouts of real vol on the day, first in the minutes after the morning's retail sales release, then again late in the session around the Jan FOMC minutes release.
  • FI markets reverse gains post-data, knee-jerk reaction to initial headline Retail Sales gain of +3.8% vs. +2.0% est, control group +4.8% vs. +1.3% est.
    • Strong data tempered by down revisions and mixed performance on the internals, with a few categories contracting M/M (incl health, personal care, gasoline, sporting goods, misc stores, food services).
  • Tsy futures held modest gains following brief two-way after $19B 20Y note auction (912810TF5) came in on target: 2.396% high yield vs. 2.396% WI; 2.44x bid-to-cover vs. last month's 2.48x.
  • Long end Tsys futures had already sold off in the minutes lead-up to the Jan minutes release, are off early session lows -- stocks gapped higher, SPX emini near highs late: +12.5 at 4477.0.
    • Fed minutes: “Most participants suggested that a faster pace of increases in the target range for the federal-funds rate than in the post-2015 period would likely be warranted.”
  • On-tap Thursday: weekly claims, housing data, 30Y TIPS auction while StL Fed Bullard makes another appearance at 1100ET.
  • Currently, the 2-Yr yield is down 5bps at 1.527%, 5-Yr is down 2bps at 1.9202%, 10-Yr is up 0.4bps at 2.0469%, and 30-Yr is up 0.6bps at 2.3632%.
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