August 18, 2022 14:48 GMT
Some analyst views on Wednesday's release of the July FOMC minutes:
- NatWest: The Minutes "should not materially alter expectations for a continued "unusually large" rate hike next month". One line seized on by the market as dovish - re "appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases" - NatWest notes simply repeated one of Powell's post-meeting press conference responses.
- NatWest still looks for a 50bp hike in Sept, 25bp in Nov, 25bp in Dec, and 50bp in early 2023.
- UBS:"One of the more surprising lines to us was that "many" participants voiced concern about over-tightening...such widespread concern at this juncture, given how high inflation is, was new news."
- But there was "little clarity on what action to expect at the September FOMC meeting...We look at these minutes as consistent with a path toward a 50 bp rate hike ... with risks of 75 bps depending on the data to come."
- "In line with the mixed signals on the economy reflected in the discussion, the labor market was no exception....FOMC participants apparently  see the discrepancy with their own internal translation of the ADP data. That suggests a labor market that may look more like the household survey than the payroll survey."