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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
The July employment report isn't a game-changer for the Fed's September decision, but is highly suggestive that yet another revision of the unemployment rate in the Summary of Economic Projections will be necessary absent surprising weakness in the August data.
- June's SEP showed a median 4.1% unemployment rate for 2024, calculated as the average for the three months of the 4th quarter.
- At 3.6% in June, it would have basically required a 0.1pp rise in each of the subsequent 6 months to achieve that projection. But with July's unexpected drop to 3.5%, that 4.1% Q4 projection - itself a downward revision from 4.5% in March's edition, and 4.6% in Dec 2022's - would require an even more substantial increase in the rate in the last 5 months of the year.
- The unemployment rate hasn't printed a 4-handle since January 2022, and even the bottom participants' projection of 3.9% is starting to look out of reach.
June 2023 SEP
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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