Free Trial

Ford (Ba1/BBB-): 1Q24 Results Preview

CONSUMER CYCLICALS

• Ford posted a strong beat at 4Q23 with EBIT 10% ahead of consensus.

• They forecasted FY FCF of $6-7bn for 2024 and adj. EBIT of $10-12bn ($9.24bn expected at the time).

• FY adj. EBIT consensus is now $10.45bn, so some room to the upside still if performance is on track. Q1 adj. EBITDA consensus has moved down from $3.8bn to $3.7bn so expectations appear to imply Q1 won’t be the strongest quarter. With OEMs guiding for a stronger H2 than H1, the FY guidance will be the most important indicator.

• Equity is modestly higher since previous earnings. F credit has continued to compress vs auto peers, with the 29s now 57bp tighter YTD.

• Credit is already IG rated with Fitch at BBB- tipping the split to IG.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.