April 24, 2024 15:21 GMT
Ford (Ba1/BBB-): 1Q24 Results Preview
CONSUMER CYCLICALS
• Ford posted a strong beat at 4Q23 with EBIT 10% ahead of consensus.
• They forecasted FY FCF of $6-7bn for 2024 and adj. EBIT of $10-12bn ($9.24bn expected at the time).
• FY adj. EBIT consensus is now $10.45bn, so some room to the upside still if performance is on track. Q1 adj. EBITDA consensus has moved down from $3.8bn to $3.7bn so expectations appear to imply Q1 won’t be the strongest quarter. With OEMs guiding for a stronger H2 than H1, the FY guidance will be the most important indicator.
• Equity is modestly higher since previous earnings. F credit has continued to compress vs auto peers, with the 29s now 57bp tighter YTD.
• Credit is already IG rated with Fitch at BBB- tipping the split to IG.
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