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Ford (F Ba1/BBB-/BBB-): 2Q24 Preview

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • Ford reports 2Q24 results on Wednesday.
  • 1Q results were positive with a strong EBITDA beat and upgraded FCF guidance. EBIT guidance was maintained.
  • FY24 EBIT consensus has risen around 10% since, now at $11.4bn vs $10-12bn guidance.
  • Ford is well positioned in the short term at least with a heavy tilt to the US and relatively small EV exposure. Guidance assumptions seem reasonably conservative and achievable in our view, despite sector headwinds.
  • Spreads have performed largely in line with the sector over the past 3 months having compressed significantly in the rally from November to April. We see room for further compression, nonetheless.

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