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Forecasters Expect Rates to Peak Early Next Year

AUSTRALIA

There was little change in forecasts in today’s Bloomberg monthly economic survey. Growth is expected to slow to the end of 2023 and inflation with it to just above the top of the RBA’s target band. Forecasters now expect 60bp of monetary tightening in Q4 2023 up from 50bp in the last survey. Rates are projected to peak at 3.1% in Q1 2023 and end that year at 3%.

  • Economists expect Q3 2022 GDP to be up 0.8% q/q and Q4 +0.6%. The quarterly path slows to +0.4% q/q through 2023. This leaves 2022 growth at 4% and 2023 at 2.3%, as rate hikes and slower global growth are felt.
  • Inflation is projected to peak at 7.3% y/y (revised up 0.1pp) in Q4 2022 and then moderate over 2023 to end the year at 3.1% y/y.
  • The unemployment rate has probably reached a trough and then it is expected to reach 4% by the end of 2023. Economists believe that growth in the wage price index should remain contained at 3.3% in Q4 2022 and peak at only 3.8% in Q2 2023.
  • Forecasters expect the AUDUSD to trend higher and end 2023 at 0.73.
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