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FOREX: Antipodean FX Outperforms Amid Further China Equity Surge

FOREX

The top performers in the G10 FX space today have been AUD and NZD, which are both up close to 0.45% firmer versus the USD. Further strong China equity gains, coupled with higher metal prices (particularly for iron ore) have been key drivers. This follows the weekend news of easing property restrictions in 3 large China cities. Yen and CHF are weaker, but away from worst levels. 

  • The BBDXY USD index sits little changed last near 1219.10/15, with all of today's focus in the crosses. US equity futures are close to flat, while US yields are a touch higher.
  • USD/JPY got to highs of 142.95, but sits back near 142.25 in latest dealings, only modestly weaker in yen terms.
  • New PM Ishiba is expected to call an election for Oct 27th, per onshore media sources. Local equities are sharply lower, with policy continuity seen from Ishiba in the near term (and likely continued BoJ normalization).
  • Japan IP data was softer, but is expected to improve from the auto side for the next print. Retail sales were close to expectations and in positive territory.
  • AUD/USD was last near the 0.6930/35 level, so just short of recent highs, close to 0.6940. Bulls will target a move towards 0.7000, as China ramps up efforts to boost the economy/property sector. Iron ore has surged higher (last near $112/ton, fresh multi month highs), in line with surging China property equity gains.
  • NZD/USD is around 0.6370, just off highs of 0.6375, which marginally breached late Dec highs from 2023. The ANZ business sentiment readings improved further pointing to an improved outlook, although this is more likely for 2025.
  • Looking ahead, we have the second UK GDP estimate, along with regional EU inflation details (with German figures out). In the US session, we have the MNI Chicago PMI print, as well as hearing from Fed Chair Powell. 
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The top performers in the G10 FX space today have been AUD and NZD, which are both up close to 0.45% firmer versus the USD. Further strong China equity gains, coupled with higher metal prices (particularly for iron ore) have been key drivers. This follows the weekend news of easing property restrictions in 3 large China cities. Yen and CHF are weaker, but away from worst levels. 

  • The BBDXY USD index sits little changed last near 1219.10/15, with all of today's focus in the crosses. US equity futures are close to flat, while US yields are a touch higher.
  • USD/JPY got to highs of 142.95, but sits back near 142.25 in latest dealings, only modestly weaker in yen terms.
  • New PM Ishiba is expected to call an election for Oct 27th, per onshore media sources. Local equities are sharply lower, with policy continuity seen from Ishiba in the near term (and likely continued BoJ normalization).
  • Japan IP data was softer, but is expected to improve from the auto side for the next print. Retail sales were close to expectations and in positive territory.
  • AUD/USD was last near the 0.6930/35 level, so just short of recent highs, close to 0.6940. Bulls will target a move towards 0.7000, as China ramps up efforts to boost the economy/property sector. Iron ore has surged higher (last near $112/ton, fresh multi month highs), in line with surging China property equity gains.
  • NZD/USD is around 0.6370, just off highs of 0.6375, which marginally breached late Dec highs from 2023. The ANZ business sentiment readings improved further pointing to an improved outlook, although this is more likely for 2025.
  • Looking ahead, we have the second UK GDP estimate, along with regional EU inflation details (with German figures out). In the US session, we have the MNI Chicago PMI print, as well as hearing from Fed Chair Powell.