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FOREX: Antipodeans Outperforming Amid Equities Boost, RBNZ in Focus

FOREX
  • The strong topside momentum for global equity benchmarks on Tuesday is having a solid impact on risk-sensitive G10 currencies, with the bulk of the greenback weakness best reflected by the firm gains for AUD, NZD and GBP.
  • Kiwi stands out, having risen 0.86% against the dollar at typing and extending the week’s advance to 1.18% as we approach the RBNZ decision, due overnight. We pointed out yesterday that we believe the MPC is likely to hold the official cash rate at 5.5%, but it will debate a cut and inject greater dovish language into its communications as it prepares for reductions later this year. 
  • According to the latest Bloomberg survey, analysts remain evenly divided between a hold and a 25bp cut, so an unchanged decision could provide a further moderate boost to the currency. If so, attention will be on NZDJPY, which has been consolidating above last week’s highs of 89.00, signalling scope for a more protracted recovery to the psychological 90.00 mark which has been technically pivotal in recent months.
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