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FOREX: Canada CPI Eyed as Markets Test June Cut Theory

FOREX
  • Currency markets sit broadly inline with the Monday close, as markets await broader cues from the Canadian and UK inflation releases set for the coming few days. 
  • Canadian inflation is seen rising 0.5% on the month and 2.7% Y/Y, however more attention may be paid to the trimmed and median inflation metrics as markets look to gauge the timing of a first rate cut from the Bank of Canada - with market focus on a potential June cut. USD/CAD trades either side of the 50-dma of 1.3638, and any break lower and unwind of the dovish rate pricing will eye a May low at 1.3590.
  • Scandi currencies are creeping higher amid quieter markets, and despite a mixed outlook for commodities and equities. USD/NOK sits on support at 10.6478/10.6537, and a recovery in Brent crude prices could see this pair break lower.
  • Outside of the Canadian numbers, UK CBI trends data and appearances from Fed's Barkin, Waller, Williams, Bostic and Barr are due, as well as an appearance from BoE Governor Bailey, who delivers a lecture to the LSE.  
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