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FOREX: CHF Weakness Short-Lived as Soft CPI Unlikely to be Sustained

FOREX
  • Antipodean currencies are outperforming, with AUD and NZD higher against most others in G10. Equity markets are generally higher on the continent, which is supporting risk more broadly and underpinning USD consolidation, and AUD, NZD strength.
  • Elections and political risk remain key, with UK election voting today, with full results expected through the night. An exit poll released at 2200BST/1700ET should give markets a very good idea of the outcome, with a broad and wide Labour party victory and majority expected.
  • In addition, French elections remain a key focus, with the fading likelihood of a right-wing majority helping prop EUR, French bond markets and local equity markets. 
  • CHF was initially offered on the back of a soft CPI headline, however one-off factors and single drivers suggested that the step-lower in CPI will not be sustained across the coming months, containing the pullback in the currency. 
  • Independence Day celebrations in the US keep markets closed and should limit price action, volumes and liquidity through the Thursday session. Canada's June PMI data is due, but the central bank speaker slate is quiet, with just ECB's Cipollone on the docket.
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