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FOREX: Chicago PMI Could Set Data Tone for Next Week

FOREX
  • The USD Index is holding the bounce off the August pullback low, with the 101.00 handle seen steady into the end of the month. Month-end flow impacts are expected to be mild, particularly for the greenback, while EUR weakness this week could be attributed to corporate flow tied into the value-date month-end that passed on Wednesday.
  • GBP is modestly outperforming, helping keep EUR/GBP under pressure and extend the recent spell of weakness. The cross is testing 0.8400 at typing, and a break below would be the first since late July, adding to the focus to key support and the bear trigger of 0.8383.
  • Growth-proxy currencies have carried over the short-term momentum into the second-half of the week, allowing AUD/USD to build a base above 0.6800. 0.6824 and 0.6871 remain the key levels here, and a particularly soft set of US dataprints today could see these resistance marks come under pressure.
  • US PCE data takes focus in the session ahead, with markets expecting both the headline and core PCE price indices to hold steady at 0.2% on the month, and both above 2.5% on a Y/Y basis. MNI Chicago PMI is set to follow, with expectations of continued weak growth likely to help lay the groundwork for next week's run of ISM and NFP data. 
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