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FOREX: EUR fails to break out, NZD eyes first close below $0.60 in two months

FOREX
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  • EUR/USD creeping to new daily highs of 1.0837 fails to stick, but has helped the pair break out of the very tight early Friday range. Concurrently, EUR/AUD has failed to show above the overnight highs - keeping the cross below 1.6354 resistance, as lower-than-expected Eurozone CPI expectations counter any hawkish read-through from Simkus comments - who repeated that he doesn't see the need for rate cuts of larger than 25bps.
  • Nonetheless, antipodean currencies are underperforming despite the more rangebound equity market. NZD/USD has traded to a new pullback low of 0.5987, showing through the Wednesday low in the process. A close below $0.6000 would be the first since August, exposing 0.5975 support in the process.
  • The greenback is somewhat firmer, but generally contained in early Friday trade. The USD Index is either side of the 104.00 handle, holding between the technical parameters of the 104.570 cycle high and the 200-dma support of 103.818.
  • Canadian retail sales data is set to cross later today, alongside prelim durable goods numbers for September. Final University of Michigan stats for Octover also cross, but are unlikely to trigger any outsized market moves. Fed's Collins appears in a fireside chat, but the lack of a text release could contain any major policy messages.
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  • EUR/USD creeping to new daily highs of 1.0837 fails to stick, but has helped the pair break out of the very tight early Friday range. Concurrently, EUR/AUD has failed to show above the overnight highs - keeping the cross below 1.6354 resistance, as lower-than-expected Eurozone CPI expectations counter any hawkish read-through from Simkus comments - who repeated that he doesn't see the need for rate cuts of larger than 25bps.
  • Nonetheless, antipodean currencies are underperforming despite the more rangebound equity market. NZD/USD has traded to a new pullback low of 0.5987, showing through the Wednesday low in the process. A close below $0.6000 would be the first since August, exposing 0.5975 support in the process.
  • The greenback is somewhat firmer, but generally contained in early Friday trade. The USD Index is either side of the 104.00 handle, holding between the technical parameters of the 104.570 cycle high and the 200-dma support of 103.818.
  • Canadian retail sales data is set to cross later today, alongside prelim durable goods numbers for September. Final University of Michigan stats for Octover also cross, but are unlikely to trigger any outsized market moves. Fed's Collins appears in a fireside chat, but the lack of a text release could contain any major policy messages.