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FOREX: EURUSD Briefly Pierces Below 1.05 Mark Before Recovering

FOREX
  • Sentiment early Thursday matched that of recent sessions, with the greenback extending its most recent rally and EURUSD making steady progress towards the 1.05 mark. Following a brief print at 1.0497, sentiment reversed course, and the single currency traded on a more positive footing for the remainder of the session, trading close to unchanged around 1.0560 as we approach the APAC crossover.
  • It was a similar story across the major pairs, with Scandinavian FX outperforming and JPY and CHF the moderate laggards.
  • For USDJPY, we reached as high as 156.24 as the bull cycle extends. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 154.71, the Nov 07 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 156.67, a Fibonacci retracement.
  • BoJ policy and the FX approach of the Japanese authorities becomes key here, with markets re-entering levels at which the Japanese authorities intervened in currency markets.
  • USDCAD is also a standout, having extended above the psychological 1.4000 level. The persistence of greenback strength in the aftermath of the softer US supercore CPI did prompt USDCAD to rise above the 2022 highs on Wednesday, a breach of key medium-term resistance. Immediate attention is on 1.4034, the 1.00 projection of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing. Further topside momentum would place the focus on 1.4188, 2.0% 10-dma envelope.
  • Chinese activity data is due overnight before UK GDP and US retail sales headline the Friday data calendar.
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  • Sentiment early Thursday matched that of recent sessions, with the greenback extending its most recent rally and EURUSD making steady progress towards the 1.05 mark. Following a brief print at 1.0497, sentiment reversed course, and the single currency traded on a more positive footing for the remainder of the session, trading close to unchanged around 1.0560 as we approach the APAC crossover.
  • It was a similar story across the major pairs, with Scandinavian FX outperforming and JPY and CHF the moderate laggards.
  • For USDJPY, we reached as high as 156.24 as the bull cycle extends. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 154.71, the Nov 07 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 156.67, a Fibonacci retracement.
  • BoJ policy and the FX approach of the Japanese authorities becomes key here, with markets re-entering levels at which the Japanese authorities intervened in currency markets.
  • USDCAD is also a standout, having extended above the psychological 1.4000 level. The persistence of greenback strength in the aftermath of the softer US supercore CPI did prompt USDCAD to rise above the 2022 highs on Wednesday, a breach of key medium-term resistance. Immediate attention is on 1.4034, the 1.00 projection of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing. Further topside momentum would place the focus on 1.4188, 2.0% 10-dma envelope.
  • Chinese activity data is due overnight before UK GDP and US retail sales headline the Friday data calendar.