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FOREX: EURUSD Falls to Three-Week Low Amid Weakness for European Equities

FOREX
  • Currency markets have adopted a moderate risk-off tone on Monday, despite a distinct lack of major external developments or datapoints. Weakness for European equity indices has prompted the USD index to rise 0.25%, and in tandem assisting EURUSD to reach a fresh three-week low.
  • The pair has now broken below last week’s low of 1.0826 and pierced support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.0818. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 1.0774, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher would highlight the end of the current corrective cycle and open the key resistance at 1.0948, the Jul 17 high.
  • There was notable volatility for sterling ahead of comments made by Chancellor Reeves. Some early relative weakness briefly saw GBPUSD test as low as 1.2807, although the bulk of this move has now reversed. Price action saw EURGBP have a notable test of the 50-dma of 0.8461, however the cross now trades close to 50 pips below the morning high. 
  • Another volatile session for the Japanese Yen, in which after trading down as low as 153.02, USDJPY hovers nearer to the 154.00 handle as we approach the APAC crossover.
  • German and Spanish CPI will be in focus Tuesday, ahead of US consumer confidence and JOLTS data. The data precedes a very busy economic calendar this week, including decisions from the Fed and BOE, as well as the US employment report Friday.
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