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FOREX: EZ Core CPI Underpins EUR Recovery into NY Hours

FOREX
  • The single currency trades slightly firmer, with EUR/USD touching new daily highs on the back of the firmer-than-expected May CPI estimate from the Eurozone. Headline CPI was 0.1ppts ahead of consensus, but it's the 0.2ppts beat for core CPI that will have troubled markets.
  • JPY trades poorly, falling against all others in G10 as markets await the formal release from the Japanese finance ministry to confirm the extent of intervention across May. Expectations are for ~$60bln (Y9.4trl) to have been sold across two phases this month. Headlines cross at 1100BST/1900 local time.
  • Chinese macro data overnight came in soft, with official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs falling short of expectations - manufacturing was a particular source of weakness (49.5 vs. Exp. 40.5) and unexpectedly fell into contraction territory - a release that's worked against CNH, which trades softer against the greenback. 
  • Focus ahead turns to the MNI Chicago PMI release for May, at which markets expect headline weakness to abate slightly, with a 41.5 reading from 37.9 previously. PCE data for April is also set to cross, at which markets expect another moderation in price pressures in the final reading before the June FOMC decision.

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