FOREX: Flash PMIs to Drive Short-Term Euro Sentiment
Ahead of the eagerly anticipated Eurozone flash PMIs on Friday, EURUSD is trading towards the lower end of a newly established range between 1.05-1.06. The trend direction remains down for the pair and attempts above the 1.06 handle have been met with firm supply, underpinning the dominant downtrend. A further push below 1.0500 would place focus on the 2023 low at 1.0448.
The November EZ flash PMIs could be influenced by recent political developments in both the US and Germany. The Republican sweep in the US election has increased tariff-related growth concerns in the Eurozone, prompting a notable dovish repricing in ECB-dated OIS (there are 141bps of cuts now priced through December 2025 versus 117bps before the election result).
We run through some of the key EUR cross themes & technical levels to be aware of before tomorrow’s data: FX Market Analysis - EUR 21-11.pdf