FOREX: GBP, NZD Typically Lose Ground Over August

Looking ahead, monthly returns across the month of August are typically poor for GBP, with GBP/USD averaging a 1% fall over the past 15 years, and a 0.8% fall against the EUR. NZD also performs poorly, with NZD/USD averaging a 1.8% fall over August and AUD/NZD averaging a +0.7% move.

On month-end flows - most models point to generally weak signals for end-July, as follows: 

• Credit Agricole write that their model means month-end portfolio rebalancing flows are likely to be neutral across the board for July, however their corporate flow model points to EUR buying into end-July. 
• Barclays' prelim month-end model pointed to weak USD buys against most majors this month, with USD/JPY the only standout due to the significant JPY appreciation this month, making the buy signal more moderate.