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FOREX: Greenback Returns Lower Post US Retail Sales, CHF and AUD Outperform

FOREX
  • Despite trading with a bid tone early Tuesday, softer-than-expected US retail sales placed the greenback under pressure throughout US trading hours. While the USD index unwound the entirety of the Friday upswing, downside momentum waned amid prospects of a US holiday tomorrow.
  • There are two clear standouts in G10, with both AUD and CHF notably outperforming on the session, both up around 0.65% against the dollar.
  • For AUDUSD, the RBA statement overnight was a touch more hawkish, and this has likely underpinned the strength, which has been bolstered by a moderate risk-on tone across global markets. Price action narrows the gap to key resistance, defined at 0.6714, the May 16 high. Overall, the pair remains in a range with key support remaining at 0.6576, the Jun 10 and both price points representing key short-term directional triggers. 
  • CHF outperformance comes ahead of this Thursday's SNB rate decision, at which markets remain evenly split on expecting either a rate cut or hold - but today's further strength might provide more space for easier policy ahead. USDCHF is now 3.5% below the late-May highs following the hawkish remarks from SNB’s Jordan.
  • EURJPY extended its strong recovery from the Friday lows, briefly trading within 9 pips of the 170.00 mark once more. Note that the cross did pierce a key support at 168.14, a key trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. The line remains intact, however, a clear breach of it would undermine a bullish theme and highlight a potential reversal.
  • BOJ minutes will be published overnight before UK CPI takes the focus Wednesday. The Bank of Canada summary of deliberations will cross in what is expected to be a subdued Wednesday session, owing to the US Juneteenth holiday.

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