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FOREX: Markets on Watch for Next USD Strength Trigger

FOREX
  • The greenback is firming further headed into the NY crossover, with volumes picking up to match the price action over the past 20 minutes or so. Move coincides with a very moderate drift in equity prices, as the e-mini S&P continues to gradually chew through the bounce off the Monday low. 
  • Dollar's haven status clearly playing out here, with the greenback firmer against all others in G10 - leaving markets on watch for any further deterioration in market conditions, and any trigger from global tech names (NVidia shares lower by 2% already pre-market), geopolitics in the Middle-east or any resumption in the JPY short-covering rally.
  • Importantly, GBP/USD is testing key support at the Monday/Friday lows of 1.2711/1.2707, and a break below here would again be the lowest levels since early July. 
  • There is no scheduled Fedspeak today, however we wouldn’t be surprised to see further commentary cautioning on overreacting to last Friday's NFP print, but we suspect there is only so much reaction this can now have. That said, today’s data is limited to international trade -- we likely have to wait for Thursday’s weekly jobless claims for the next US macro steer -- which leaves sentiment in the driving seat for now.
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