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FOREX: NFP Provides Final Market Hurdle Ahead of Election Results

FOREX
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  • GBP is firmer so far Friday, recouping a small part of the sharp losses suffered into the Thursday close. Markets continue to digest the technicalities and background pressures on the budget and Reeves' spending plans outlined on Wednesday, with the currency likely receiving some support from higher inflation expectations for next year, twinned with more muted pricing for the BoE's easing cycle across 2025.
  • Despite GBP's intraday strength, EUR/GBP remains much firmer on the week, with the cross having shown above the reversal trigger and back above 0.8400 - leaving next week's BoE decision as a critical driver of the cross that's broken major resistance.
  • The JPY is softer against all others as markets pare a small part of the post-BoJ rally. This has kept USD/JPY clear of the 200-dma on the daily charts, with 151.55 undercutting as support.
  • Lastly, the greenback is mixed-to-higher, with US 10yr yields holding inside yesterday's range, with NFP seen as the last market hurdle before focus shifts wholly to the election due next week. Polling still sees the election as too-close-to-call, providing further support for vols at these levels.  
  • Focus for the Friday session rests on the US Nonfarm Payrolls release for October, within which markets will be watching closely for the magnitude of the impact from both Hurricanes across the South-eastern states as well as strike action hitting staffing at major firms including Boeing over the course of the month. 
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  • GBP is firmer so far Friday, recouping a small part of the sharp losses suffered into the Thursday close. Markets continue to digest the technicalities and background pressures on the budget and Reeves' spending plans outlined on Wednesday, with the currency likely receiving some support from higher inflation expectations for next year, twinned with more muted pricing for the BoE's easing cycle across 2025.
  • Despite GBP's intraday strength, EUR/GBP remains much firmer on the week, with the cross having shown above the reversal trigger and back above 0.8400 - leaving next week's BoE decision as a critical driver of the cross that's broken major resistance.
  • The JPY is softer against all others as markets pare a small part of the post-BoJ rally. This has kept USD/JPY clear of the 200-dma on the daily charts, with 151.55 undercutting as support.
  • Lastly, the greenback is mixed-to-higher, with US 10yr yields holding inside yesterday's range, with NFP seen as the last market hurdle before focus shifts wholly to the election due next week. Polling still sees the election as too-close-to-call, providing further support for vols at these levels.  
  • Focus for the Friday session rests on the US Nonfarm Payrolls release for October, within which markets will be watching closely for the magnitude of the impact from both Hurricanes across the South-eastern states as well as strike action hitting staffing at major firms including Boeing over the course of the month.