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FOREX: Risk Fades as Markets Adopt Defensive Stance

FOREX
  • Currency markets have adopted a vague risk-off tone early Monday, despite a distinct lack of major external developments or datapoints. The greenback is firmer alongside the JPY, while the EUR and - in particular - GBP are trading poorly.
  • The resultant downleg in GBP extended through 1.2850 support as well as the more notable 50% retracement of the July upleg at 1.2830. The move initially triggered by the USD buying phase and the modest risk-off evident in equity futures, but GBP is now underperforming against all others in G10 - with demand for EUR/GBP putting the cross just a few pips below the 50-dma of 0.8461. Clearance here would be the first since early May.
  • Despite the fade off the best levels in equity index futures, Wall Street is set for a positive cash open later today, building on the strong close Friday. JPY is the firmest currency in G10, as the short-covering tailwind persists. 
  • Focus for the rest of Monday trade turns to the public finances statement from UK Chancellor Reeves, supposedly set for around 1530BST/1030ET, at which she's expected to lay out the detail of the "blackholes" in government finances and her plans to fix them across the coming parliament. Reports suggest she is to clamp down on infrastructure and government spending, while potentially raising some selected taxes on pension contributions or capital gains.

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