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FOREX: USDJPY Surges Above 153.00 as Yields Continue to Climb

FOREX
  • USDJPY has rallied substantially on Thursday, advancing 1.15% to trade just below the 153.00 mark as we approach the APAC crossover. Fresh cycle highs of 153.19 have been printed, and price action further affirms the resumption of the uptrend that started Sep 16, underpinned by rising core yields.
  • Initial resistance is at 153.40, the 61.8% retracement of the downleg posted off the July 3rd high. Above here, the most notable level is 155.22, the Jul 30 high.
  • The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate 50bps for the first time since the pandemic slump and said further reductions are likely needed without committing to any particular pace. USDCAD spiked very briefly to 1.3863 as the press conference began, however we have since faded back to pre-announcement levels at 1.3840.
  • Both the trend outlook and positioning indicators remain bullish for USDCAD, and it is noteworthy that spot has recently traded through 1.3822, 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg. Above here, markets will focus on 1.3946, the Aug 5 high and the next key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3702, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective and allow an overbought condition to unwind.
  • EURUSD has continued to trade with a downward bias, sinking further below 1.0800 in the process. The latest sell-off reinforces the bearish theme for EURUSD and sights are now on 1.0746, a Fibonacci retracement point and 1.0710, the Jul 2 low.
  • Eurozone flash PMIs will highlight the European session on Thursday, providing the latest barometer for the strength of the Eurozone economy. US initial jobless claims, flash PMI and new home sales will be the focus on the US docket.
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