MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, January 10

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FOREX: USDJPY Trades Below 140.00 as Fed & BOJ Decisions Loom

FOREX
  • The continued uncertainty over the Fed’s decision this week and the associated downward pressure on US yields has weighed on the greenback Monday, with the USD index down 0.42% mid-way through the European session. As expected, the Japanese Yen is the main beneficiary here, and USDJPY (-0.75%) trades below the 140.00 mark for the first time since July 2023.
  • The tilt towards 50bp being a very possible scenario has seen the pair fall as low as 139.58, although we have bounced around 40 pips in recent trade as major equity benchmarks remain buoyant, providing some support for cross/JPY.
  • While the JPY outperforms, the greenback weakness is broad across the G10 basket, with most majors rising around 0.5% against the dollar and the Canadian dollar a relative underperformer ahead of domestic inflation data on Tuesday.
  • As such, EURUSD finds itself back above 1.11 and bridging the gap to key short-term resistance at 1.1155, the Sep 6 high. A break of which would be a bullish development. For GBPUSD, the pair extends the bounce from last week’s low around 1.3000 to roughly 1.5%. A stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance ahead of the BOE decision this week. This resides at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high.
  • Canada manufacturing sales and US Empire State manufacturing headlines a quiet economic calendar. A reminder that both Japan and China remain out for respective national holidays on Monday.
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