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FOREX: Westpac See Downside Risk to AUD/GBP

FOREX
  • Westpac write that they anticipate a further leg lower in AUD/GBP, seeing 0.5110 reached over a 1- to 2-month horizon as BoE rate cut risk is trimmed further, a pro-European UK Labour leader is elected and commodity prices extend recent declines.
  • On the RBA, they see risks to the outlook as balanced, but ongoing soft domestic demand and a desire to preserve employment gains are key RBA considerations, suggesting the bar to hike is very high and leaving markets biased to price in modest rate cut risk.
  • Further trimming of BoE rate cut risk and a pro-European UK-led Labour Party leaves GBP positioned to extend recent outperformance against AUD in coming weeks.
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