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Forint Remains Resilient to Post-NFP Greenback Recovery

HUF
The post-NFP recovery in the greenback has had limited impact on HUF sentiment, with EURHUF trading close to pre-payroll data levels while the USD index sits around 0.3% higher in the same time frame. On an intraday basis, the slight fade in the greenback from its earlier highs has provided a tailwind to EM FX, with the forint performing broadly in-line with its CE3 peers.
  • For EURHUF, key short-term support at 388.34, the Apr 5 low, remains within close proximity. While this level has been tested, a clear break is needed to reinstate a bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback towards 386.39, the Feb 22 low.
  • Domestically, focus will shift to the April CPI print on Friday morning. A slight uptick in the headline figure from +3.6% Y/Y to +3.7% is expected, which will justify the central bank’s cautious stance.
  • NBH Deputy Governor Virag reiterated last month that the Council still views the 6.50-7.00% base rate range as most realistic for the policy rate at the end of June. This would be consistent with further 50bp rate cuts in both May and June, bringing the base rate to 6.75% by the end of 1H-2024. The NBH meet next on May 21.
  • As a reminder, Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjarto said Hungary plans to sign at least 16 agreements with China during President Xi's visit today, focusing on expanding the Hungarian chapter of the Belt and Road Initiative to include further rail, road and energy projects.
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