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Forint Shrugs Off Disappointing Industrial Production Data

HUF
EURHUF has ticked lower at the start of the session, despite weak industrial production data pointing to a deeper recession in Hungary. The cross remains above the 386.00 handle, where this week’s lows are found, as the slight move lower in the DXY index supports broader EM FX. Performance of the forint is in-line with that of the Polish zloty, placing the two currencies toward the top of the EMEA pile alongside the South African rand.
  • Hungary’s industrial production fell 6.1% y/y in August versus a revised -2.6% in July, well below estimates of a smaller 2.9% contraction. The disappointing data adds to the retail sales data earlier in the week (-7.1% y/y), both of which point to a steeper drop in consumer demand and the potential of a deeper recession.
  • Looking ahead to next week, Hungary will report CPI data for September where the pace of disinflation expected to increase with a notable moderation in headline inflation from +16.4% y/y in August to +12.4% in September. Both central bank and government officials have indicated that they expect single-digits inflation as early as November – a development which could potentially facilitate faster rate cuts.
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