MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Forint Underperforms as DXY Uptick Provides EMFX Headwind

HUF
The forint is the weakest currency in EMEA following the NBH rate decision, with EURHUF set to break its streak of six consecutive closes lower. The 75bps cut was larger than BBG consensus for 50bps, though matched the median view of the surveys we had previewed. EURHUF had traded to as low as 380.73 at the start of the session – briefly piercing the 200-DMA.
  • The USD index fully paring yesterday’s gains and an increase in long-end US tsy yields since the start of the session have weighed on wider EM FX, though forint underperformance stems from the greater-than-expected 75bp rate cut by the NBH and concerns that Hungary’s favourable rate differential will be further eroded into year-end.
  • From a technical standpoint, the clear break in EURHUF below the 50-day EMA last week was a bearish development and exposes 378.24, the Aug 30 low. A move back above that average – which intersects today at 385.11 – would instead be bullish and signal scope for a resumption of the uptrend toward 389.20, the Oct 9 high.
  • The Budapest Stock index is also underperforming its regional counterparts, closing 0.56% lower on the day. Meanwhile, yields on HGBs are 9-16bps lower across the curve, matching similar moves in POLGBs and CZGBs.
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