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Forint Weakens Alongside EM Peers as Global Sentiment Drives Price Action

HUF
While EURHUF stands 0.10% firmer at typing and has extended yesterday’s post-NBH rally, the softer forint today is more likely a function of global risk sentiment with HUF performance broadly in-line with that of its regional peers (EURPLN: +0.05%; EURCZK: +0.05%). A stronger greenback is providing a headwind to the wider emerging markets basket, while steps taken by Chinese regulators against quantitative funds and the subsequent pressure on local equities is no doubt contributing to souring risk appetite.
  • PLNHUF and CZKHUF are little changed on the day, though we note that the former matched yesterday’s fresh all-time high earlier in the session. For CZKHUF, price stands 1.3% above the mid-February lows.
  • For EURHUF, the cross continues to operate above key resistance at 390.49, the Jan 31 high, a more sustained break of which could signal scope for a move higher toward the early August/late September highs of 394.67/394.65.
  • The NBH delivered a 100bp rate cut yesterday, upping the pace from the 75bp moves, though post-decision communication described the faster pace of easing as “temporary” while Deputy Governor Virag said he still sees the key rate in the 6-7% range by the end of June. Our full review of the decision, with sell-side analyst views, will be released later today.
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