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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
RUSSIA
- In line with the recent trend of upside surprises, Russian CPI printed above expectations yesterday at 8.13% vs 8.00% exp. As expected, the primary driver was the harvest-sensitive fruit and vegetables component, while core saw a more moderate upside surprise at 8.03% vs 8.00% exp.
- In prior bouts of higher fruit and veg prices, we've seen an initial sharp spike higher for 3-4 months followed by a sharp moderation - Suggesting that this upside pressure may wane by December.
- Aside from Fruit & veg, pressures in non-food goods subsided slightly and are expected to fall further into year-end on a firmer RUB, adding to more prominent base effects in December.
- The sell-side still sees headline figures peaking around 8.20-8.30% following yesterday's print, some margin above the CBR's year-end target of 7.4-7.9%. Nevertheless, they remain divided over the terminal rate (7.75-8.25%) and end point for the hiking cycle, with some anticipating a final hike in Feb 2022, instead of December 2021.
- 3x6 FRA-Mosprime spreads have ticked up +12bp since yesterday morning and have now settled at +125bp - implying a slightly higher terminal rate at 7.75%.
3x6 FRA-Mosprime Spreads
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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