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Foxtons Results; UK Residential Very Reliant On Size/Timing Of BoE Cuts

FINANCIALS

Foxtons (FOXT LN) is not a credit issuer but is the UK’s largest residential property agent, so an interesting insight into the UK property & mortgage market from today's 4Q23 results.


  • Mgmt indicate a Dec-23 sales pipeline “significantly ahead” y/y “despite weaker market conditions” which appears to imply some market share gain, rather than market health.
  • Interestingly, it continues to “buyer demand has grown as mortgage rates have begun to normalise” with good growth as the first few sub-4% mortgage products have hit the UK market in recent weeks.

For a typically bombastic mgmt team, this is a muted outlook statement but highlights that UK residential property could well have bottomed (in both price and activity terms), if we can assume further BoE rates cuts.


We then reference back to our rates team colleagues’ earlier comment:


“Massive swing in BoE pricing this month… only 91bp of cuts priced for this year now” (from a peak nearer-140bp).
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