France August Leads Gains

France August power base load is leading gains amid forecasts for above-normal temperatures, especially in the southern region, and uncertainty around France’s political stability following the surprise win by the leftist NFP coalition.

• France Base Power AUG 24 up 2.3% at 45.24 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 up 0.9% at 75.44 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 0.7% at 70.84 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 up 0.9% at 33.375 EUR/MWh
• TTF edges higher today as the market watches for any impact on US LNG exports to Europe as Hurricane Beryl approaches the Texas coast. Stable fundamentals and the gradual restocking of gas storage has helped limited upside pressures since mid June but the market remains wary of unplanned supply disruptions.
• EU ETS Dec 24 is trading higher today with gains in European gas and political uncertainty in France following the latest election on 7 July. The next EU EUA auction will clear today 11:00am CET.
• The French leftist NFP coalition surprisingly won the most votes in the second-round French legislative election, though fell well short of an overall majority.
• In Germany, combined onshore and offshore wind output is forecast at 1.83GW to 8.92GW during base load on 9-15 July. Solar PV output is forecast at 18.58GW-31.1GW during peak load on 9-17 July according to SpotRenewables.
• Power demand in Germany is forecast to reach a peak of 63.96GW on Monday and of 64.74GW on Tuesday according to Entso-E.
• In France, nuclear availability was at 70% as of Monday morning, up from 69% of capacity as of Friday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• Planned maintenance at the 880MW Bugey 4 reactor has been extended by one day until 9 July.
• French power demand is forecast to reach a peak of 49.26GW on Monday and a maximum of 50.51GW on Tuesday, Entso-E data showed.
• The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested temperatures above normal until 12-14 July, when temperatures will briefly fall below normal, before rising back up. At the end of the forecast period, temperatures look to fall again. In Marseille in the south, mean temperatures are forecast to remain above normal throughout the forecast period.
• In France, forecasts suggested wind output at 1.17GW-3.74GW during base load on 9-17 July. Solar PV output is forecast at 5.61GW-8.19GW during peak load on 9-17 July according to SpotRenewables.
• EdF’s CEO Luc Remont said last weekend that French power prices have stabilised after EdF has overcome the technical issues with its rectors.