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France August Plunges on Cooler Weather

POWER

The French front-month power base-load contract is plunging today amid a downward revision in temperatures, widening the spread to the German equivalent to the highest since 8 July. Germany August power is rebounding with support from front-week gains and slight gains in European emissions prices.

    • France Base Power AUG 24 down 9.1% at 45.5 EUR/MWh
    • Germany Base Power AUG 24 up 1.7% at 73.07 EUR/MWh
    • EUA DEC 24 up 0.2% at 65.87 EUR/MT
    • TTF Gas AUG 24 down 0.1% at 31.6 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month edging lower but holding within the €31.1/MWh to €31.975/MWh range so far this week amid stable fundamentals as muted demand and healthy storage is weighed against supply risks.
  • EU ETS Dec 24 is extending yesterday’s gains but remains within this week’s range, after falling to the lowest since early/mid-April on Monday.
  • In Germany, wind output is forecast at 3.85GW during base load on Thursday, down from 12.18GW forecast for Wednesday. Solar PV output is forecast at 14.9GW during base load on Thursday, up from 12.45GW forecast for Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • German power demand is forecast to rise to a maximum of 63.35GW on Thursday, compared with a peak of 63.37GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed.
  • French nuclear availability was stable on the day at 73% as of Wednesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • In France, wind output is forecast at 1.58GW for Thursday, slightly down from 1.65GW forecasted for Wednesday. Solar PV output is forecast at 4.92GW for Thursday, slightly up from 4.64GW forecasted for Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • French power demand is forecast to rise up to 51.41GW on Thursday, down from a maximum of 52.21GW on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed.
  • The latest ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested temperatures above normal until 26 July, before dipping below normal for two days, after which temperatures will rise back above normal. Max temperatures in the south, Marseille, have been revised lower to reach around 29C on 31 July, with Tuesday’s forecasts suggesting temperatures to rise to around 35C on 31 July.
  • French net power exports are scheduled at 2.995GW to Germany, 4.03GW to Belgium, 2.98GW to Italy and 1.87GW to Spain on Wednesday, Entso-E data showed.
  • The IFA 1 Mandarins-Sellindge 1 interconnector has an unplanned outage for one week until 29 July 16:00 CET, reducing capacity in both directions to 1.36GW, from 2GW usually.
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