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France August Plunges on Cooler Weather

POWER

France August power base load is further extending yesterday’s losses after RTE’s announcement to reduce exports from 29 July, widening the discount to the German market to the highest since 5 July.

    • France Base Power AUG 24 down 2.9% at 45 EUR/MWh
    • Germany Base Power AUG 24 down 0.4% at 75.25 EUR/MWh
    • EUA DEC 24 down 0.7% at 67.93 EUR/MT
    • TTF Gas AUG 24 down 1.4% at 32.15 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month has fallen back from a high of €32.98/MWh yesterday which was supported by rising LNG demand from Egypt.
  • EU ETS Dec 24 is edging lower after yesterday’s rally with lower natural gas prices. The next EU ETS CAP 3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • RTE is expecting to reduce power exports on France’s eastern borders – Belgium, Germany, Switzerland and Italy - from 29 July until mid-October, RTE said late on Tuesday.
  • In Germany, wind output is forecast at 4.69GW during base load on Friday, up from 3.85GW forecast for Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast at 8.99GW on Friday, down from 14.9GW forecast for Thursday during base load according to SpotRenewables.
  • German power demand is forecast at a maximum of 63.35GW on Thursday and of 61.67GW on Friday, Entso-E data showed.
  • French nuclear availability was stable on the day at 73% as of Thursday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Reuters.
  • The unplanned outage at 1.33GW Paluel 3 has been brought forward by two days and is now scheduled to end on 29 July.
  • In France, wind output is forecast at 1.65GW during base load on Friday, slightly up from 1.58GW forecast for Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast at 4.08GW for Friday during base load, down from 4.92GW forecast for Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
  • French power demand is forecast at a peak of 51.41GW on Thursday and of 51GW on Friday, Entso-E data showed.
  • The latest ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested temperatures have been slightly revised down at the start of the forecast period. Temperatures are forecast to dip below normal 27-28 July after which temperatures will rise back well above normal. Max temps in Marseille are forecast to reach above 35C on 1 August.
  • French net power exports are scheduled at 1.46GW to Germany, down from 2.995GW scheduled the previous day. Flows to Belgium are scheduled at 1.64GW, down by 59% day on day, Entso-E data showed.
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