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FRANCE DATA: Q3 GDP Confirms Likely Temporary Boost From Olympics

FRANCE DATA
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France Q3 final GDP came in a touch below flash at 1.2% Y/Y (vs 1.3% flash, 1.0% prior) though the quarterly reading came in-line with flash at 0.4% Q/Q (0.2% prior).

  • As per the flash release, the final emphasizes that growth was "driven by the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games" boosting household consumption to 0.6% Q/Q (vs 0.0% in Q2) "due to recording of ticket sales for the Olympics".
  • Final domestic demand added 0.3pp to quarterly GDP (vs 0.2pp flash) after three consecutive quarters at just 0.1pp whilst stock variations added an unrevised 0.1pp after -0.1pp.
  • The net export contribution was revised down to -0.1pp (vs +0.1pp), with exports falling more than initially estimated (-0.8% vs -0.5% flash) due to weaker goods exports.
  • A small upward revision for imports (-0.6% vs -0.7% flash, after 0.1% in Q2) does little to change the theme of weaker signs of underlying domestic demand.
  • Also of note is the continued decline in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), -0.7% Q/Q in Q3 after -0.1% in Q2, noted as being "due to the sharp decline in manufactured products, particularly transport equipment". Note eurozone member countries have been increasingly struggling to keep up with its Chinese competitors in manufacturing production as well as innovations in EVs, which has led to some recent sites being shut down or being reduced in size.
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France Q3 final GDP came in a touch below flash at 1.2% Y/Y (vs 1.3% flash, 1.0% prior) though the quarterly reading came in-line with flash at 0.4% Q/Q (0.2% prior).

  • As per the flash release, the final emphasizes that growth was "driven by the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games" boosting household consumption to 0.6% Q/Q (vs 0.0% in Q2) "due to recording of ticket sales for the Olympics".
  • Final domestic demand added 0.3pp to quarterly GDP (vs 0.2pp flash) after three consecutive quarters at just 0.1pp whilst stock variations added an unrevised 0.1pp after -0.1pp.
  • The net export contribution was revised down to -0.1pp (vs +0.1pp), with exports falling more than initially estimated (-0.8% vs -0.5% flash) due to weaker goods exports.
  • A small upward revision for imports (-0.6% vs -0.7% flash, after 0.1% in Q2) does little to change the theme of weaker signs of underlying domestic demand.
  • Also of note is the continued decline in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), -0.7% Q/Q in Q3 after -0.1% in Q2, noted as being "due to the sharp decline in manufactured products, particularly transport equipment". Note eurozone member countries have been increasingly struggling to keep up with its Chinese competitors in manufacturing production as well as innovations in EVs, which has led to some recent sites being shut down or being reduced in size.