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France-German Discount Remains Firm Despite Day-Ahead Falls

POWER

German and French day-ahead baseload power contracts for delivery on 14 June fell sharply on the day as wind forecasts point to firm output in both countries, with power prices in France the cheapest in the region owing to steady nuclear availability. Nordic day-ahead prices tracked losses in the EU power market, with the return of a nuclear unit adding additional downward pressure.

  • The German Day-ahead settled at €78.40/MWh on 14 June down from €94.78/MWh on 13 June.
  • The French day-ahead cleared at €16.41/MWh for delivery on 14 June from €24.91/MWh in the previous session.
  • The Nordic day-ahead cleared at €42.34/MWh for delivery on 14 June from €52.92/MWh in the previous session.
  • Despite the fall in both French and German day-ahead prices the French-German discount remained firm on the day at €61.99/MWh compared to €69.87/MWh in the previous session.
  • German wind output is expected at 12.21GW, or a 19% load factor on 14 June – weighing down power prices – but wind is then anticipated fall between 2.45-6.61GW, or 4-10% load factors over 17-18 June, according to Spot Renewables. This could support prices on delivery.
  • German wind output is forecast to peak at 20.183GW at 2 pm CET on 14 June, compared with a high of 8.72GW at 1:30 am on Thursday: Bloomberg model.
  • In comparison, French wind output is forecast at a 42% load factor, or 8.29GW on 14 June, before being at 13-16% load factors or 2.63-3.25GW over 17-18 June.
  • Swedish firm Vattenfall’s 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 is still anticipated to reach full power in the morning of 14 June, latest Remit data show.
  • French nuclear reactors were operating at 69% of capacity, unchanged from Wednesday, according to gird operator RTE. The 1.5GW Chooze 2 nuclear reactor is expected to return to the grid on 14 June at 23:00 CET, pushing up availability Remit data show.
  • Regionally, In Paris, the mean temperature is forecast to drop as low as 14C on 20 June, 4C below the 30-year norm, according to Weather Services International.
  • In contrast, average temperatures in Berlin are forecast to drop to a low of about 17C on the same day – in line with the 30-year norm.
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