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France: IFOP Poll Analysis

CREDIT MACRO

FRANCE: RN Lead, NFP 2nd, Macron Group 3rd But Gaining In Latest Ifop Poll: The latest opinion poll by Ifop for Sud Radio shows the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) retaining its lead, with the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) in second, and the centrist Ensemble bloc supportive of President Emmanuel Macron in third place, although making gains from previous polls.


  • Ifop-FIDUCIAL: RN: 34%, NFP: 29%, Ensemble: 22%, Les Republicains (LR) and miscallaneous right: 6%, Reconquete: 2%, Extreme left parties: 1%, Miscellaneous left: 1%, Miscallaneous centre: 1%, Others: 4%.
  • While still trailing in third place, the 22% support recorded for Macron's bloc is the highest of the election campaign so far. The 6% support for the centre-right LR and misc. right is lower than previous polling, potentially indicating that the internal divisions and the possibility of a link-up with RN is weighing on support and pushing moderate conservatives towards Macron's bloc.
  • The poll is the first of what will be a daily rolling poll at 1700CET (1100ET, 1600BST) from Ifop-FIDUCIAL. Explainer: "A “rolling” survey is a continuous barometric survey carried out on the principle of a rolling accumulation of daily survey waves: the survey wave of the day is cumulated with the waves of the two previous days as part of a sample bringing together nearly 1,500 people in total. By its continuous nature, a rolling avoids the major pitfall of a barometer produced at regular intervals: discontinuity."

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