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FRANCE: Le Pen Sets 2 Dec Deadline For PM To Respond To 4 RN 'Red Lines'

FRANCE
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On the evening of 28 Dec, far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) parliamentary leader Marine Le Pen gave PM Michel Barnier a deadline of Monday 2 December to accede to the four 'red line' demands outlined by RN leader Jordan Bardella or risk a censure motion. The timeline looks to have been moved up, with the threat of censure not centring on the 18-20 Dec period in which the vote on the main state budget (PLF) is set to come, but to the 2-4 Dec period in which the National Assembly is likely to vote on the Social Security Finance Bill (PLFSS), which precedes the main budget. 

  • Two of the 'red lines' relating to the reindexing of pensions from 1 Jan and cancelling the delisting of medicines are notable as they are measures included in the PLFSS. Without RN support or abstention, the PLFSS will not pass and will require the use of Art. 49.3 to force it through, in turn risking a censure motion.
  • In the event a censure motion is called it has to take place and pass within 48 hours or the legislation that it relates to (the PLFSS) becomes law, even if the gov't is removed eventually.
  • If the gov't is removed within 48 hours the bill does not become law. The Barnier administration would remain in place in a caretaker capacity until a new gov't can be formed. It would operate under Art. 47 of the constitution, where it can provisionally implement the budget 'by ordinance' allowing day-to-day management of gov't but no new legislation. 
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On the evening of 28 Dec, far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) parliamentary leader Marine Le Pen gave PM Michel Barnier a deadline of Monday 2 December to accede to the four 'red line' demands outlined by RN leader Jordan Bardella or risk a censure motion. The timeline looks to have been moved up, with the threat of censure not centring on the 18-20 Dec period in which the vote on the main state budget (PLF) is set to come, but to the 2-4 Dec period in which the National Assembly is likely to vote on the Social Security Finance Bill (PLFSS), which precedes the main budget. 

  • Two of the 'red lines' relating to the reindexing of pensions from 1 Jan and cancelling the delisting of medicines are notable as they are measures included in the PLFSS. Without RN support or abstention, the PLFSS will not pass and will require the use of Art. 49.3 to force it through, in turn risking a censure motion.
  • In the event a censure motion is called it has to take place and pass within 48 hours or the legislation that it relates to (the PLFSS) becomes law, even if the gov't is removed eventually.
  • If the gov't is removed within 48 hours the bill does not become law. The Barnier administration would remain in place in a caretaker capacity until a new gov't can be formed. It would operate under Art. 47 of the constitution, where it can provisionally implement the budget 'by ordinance' allowing day-to-day management of gov't but no new legislation.