MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 27

MNI BRIEF: BOJ: Rate Hike Chance Nearing; Mull Patiently

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MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1893 Fri; -2.12% Y/Y

MNI JAPAN NOV FACTORY OUTPUT DROPS 2.3% M/M; OCT +2.8%

MNI JAPAN NOV JOBLESS RATE AT 2.5%, UNCHANGED FROM OCT

MNI: US JOBLESS CLAIMS -1K TO 219K IN DEC 21 WK

MNI: US REDBOOK: DEC STORE SALES +5.0% V YR AGO MO

MNI: US DEC PHILADELPHIA FED NONMFG INDEX -6

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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FRANCE: Poll-Voters Back Macron's Resignation If Barnier Gov't Falls

FRANCE
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An opinion poll by Elabe for BFM TV shows that should the gov't of PM Michel Barnier be removed from office in a censure motion, 63% of respondents say that President Emmanuel Macron should resign and trigger a snap presidential election. Macron's resignation would be strongly backed by supporters of the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) (83%), the lefist New Popular Front (NFP) (76%), and even by a reasonable proportion of supporters from the gov't parties, the conservative Les Republicains (LR) (48%) and centrist Ensemble (27%).

  • On the topic of whether there should be a censure motion in the first place, the poll shows respondents more divided. Fifty-two per cent back a confidence vote in the gov't, while 48% oppose. As might be expected RN and NFP voters strongly support a confidence vote (64% and 75% respectively supportive) while those backing LR or Ensemble oppose (78% and 85% respectively opposed).
  • In terms of who is to blame for the current political tumult, 53% blame Macron for calling the snap legislative election in the summer. Nineteen per cent blame the Barnier gov't, while 15% and 12% blame the NFP and RN respectively for their opposition to the budget.
  • Should the Barnier gov't fall, voters support a technocratic gov't formed by non-partisan experts by a large margin (69% would support such a gov't). After this, a gov't formed by Ensemble and centre-left parties such as the Socialists or an Ensemble/Socialist/LR gov't would each garner the support of 44% of respondents. 
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An opinion poll by Elabe for BFM TV shows that should the gov't of PM Michel Barnier be removed from office in a censure motion, 63% of respondents say that President Emmanuel Macron should resign and trigger a snap presidential election. Macron's resignation would be strongly backed by supporters of the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) (83%), the lefist New Popular Front (NFP) (76%), and even by a reasonable proportion of supporters from the gov't parties, the conservative Les Republicains (LR) (48%) and centrist Ensemble (27%).

  • On the topic of whether there should be a censure motion in the first place, the poll shows respondents more divided. Fifty-two per cent back a confidence vote in the gov't, while 48% oppose. As might be expected RN and NFP voters strongly support a confidence vote (64% and 75% respectively supportive) while those backing LR or Ensemble oppose (78% and 85% respectively opposed).
  • In terms of who is to blame for the current political tumult, 53% blame Macron for calling the snap legislative election in the summer. Nineteen per cent blame the Barnier gov't, while 15% and 12% blame the NFP and RN respectively for their opposition to the budget.
  • Should the Barnier gov't fall, voters support a technocratic gov't formed by non-partisan experts by a large margin (69% would support such a gov't). After this, a gov't formed by Ensemble and centre-left parties such as the Socialists or an Ensemble/Socialist/LR gov't would each garner the support of 44% of respondents.