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France Unemployment Rate Lower Than Expected

FRANCE DATA
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France ILO Unemployment Rate for Q2 2024 printed lower than expected at +7.3% (vs +7.5% consensus, +7.5% prior) - the lowest since Q2 2023, and just slightly above the previous low point since 1982 (7.1% in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023).

  • This is whilst the employment rate remained relatively stable (albeit on a gradual upward trajectory) printing at 69.0% (vs 68.8% in Q1) , and activity rate remained unchanged at 74.5%.
  • This is somewhat unexpected following the EC's Expected Employment Indicator which averaged 98.4 in Q2 down from 99.4 in Q1.
  • However, the impact of the surprise is limited a little by being driven by the 15-24 year old rate falling 2.9pps on the quarter to 17.7% (still above Q2 2023 levels) whilst those for 25-49 and >49 remained broadly stable.
  • The France ILO mainland unemployment rate also fell to 7.1% (vs 7.2% in Q1 2024) - also the lowest since Q2 2023.
  • Similarly, the long-term unemployment rate has fell slightly to 1.7% of the active population (vs 1.8% in Q1 2024) - the first fall since Q4 2022.
  • Looking ahead, there is potential for some renewed upward pressure on the unemployment rate though given the EC's expected employment indicator dropped to 91.3 in July for its lowest since February 2021.
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France ILO Unemployment Rate for Q2 2024 printed lower than expected at +7.3% (vs +7.5% consensus, +7.5% prior) - the lowest since Q2 2023, and just slightly above the previous low point since 1982 (7.1% in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023).

  • This is whilst the employment rate remained relatively stable (albeit on a gradual upward trajectory) printing at 69.0% (vs 68.8% in Q1) , and activity rate remained unchanged at 74.5%.
  • This is somewhat unexpected following the EC's Expected Employment Indicator which averaged 98.4 in Q2 down from 99.4 in Q1.
  • However, the impact of the surprise is limited a little by being driven by the 15-24 year old rate falling 2.9pps on the quarter to 17.7% (still above Q2 2023 levels) whilst those for 25-49 and >49 remained broadly stable.
  • The France ILO mainland unemployment rate also fell to 7.1% (vs 7.2% in Q1 2024) - also the lowest since Q2 2023.
  • Similarly, the long-term unemployment rate has fell slightly to 1.7% of the active population (vs 1.8% in Q1 2024) - the first fall since Q4 2022.
  • Looking ahead, there is potential for some renewed upward pressure on the unemployment rate though given the EC's expected employment indicator dropped to 91.3 in July for its lowest since February 2021.