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POLITICAL RISK: Freeland Follows Carney In Officially Entering Leadership Race

POLITICAL RISK
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  • Former FM Freeland has announced she will formally enter the race for the Liberal party leadership, following Mark Carney yesterday.
  • It shouldn’t come as any surprise, with Carney and Freeland seen in a two-horse race for some time, and with Carney a firm favourite with Polymarket showing him at 70% since mid-week.
  • ING on the leadership contest: “In our view, Carney remains the more market-friendly alternative, considering Freeland’s conflicting terms with Trump on trade. That said, it is likely that the new Liberal leader will face a parliament no-confidence vote and the probability of elections before the October statutory deadline remains high. The Conservative party, led by Pierre Poilievre, holds a huge lead in the polls, so we believe Poilievre's plan for the US-Canada trade relationship may be more relevant for Canadian markets than that of the new Liberal leader.”
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Next leader of Canadian Liberal Party?    Source: Polymarket
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  • Former FM Freeland has announced she will formally enter the race for the Liberal party leadership, following Mark Carney yesterday.
  • It shouldn’t come as any surprise, with Carney and Freeland seen in a two-horse race for some time, and with Carney a firm favourite with Polymarket showing him at 70% since mid-week.
  • ING on the leadership contest: “In our view, Carney remains the more market-friendly alternative, considering Freeland’s conflicting terms with Trump on trade. That said, it is likely that the new Liberal leader will face a parliament no-confidence vote and the probability of elections before the October statutory deadline remains high. The Conservative party, led by Pierre Poilievre, holds a huge lead in the polls, so we believe Poilievre's plan for the US-Canada trade relationship may be more relevant for Canadian markets than that of the new Liberal leader.”
image
Next leader of Canadian Liberal Party?    Source: Polymarket