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EUROPEAN FISCAL: French Budget Deficit Widens In-Line With Seasonal Norms

EUROPEAN FISCAL
CEEMEAEurozoneFranceBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

The French YTD general government budget deficit widened to E172.5bln in November. The November YTD deficit stands at 105.7% of the 2024 forecast deficit by the French Ministry of Finance (vs 114% in Jan-Nov of 2023's outturn).

  • Note that November usually marks the low point of the year with the month of December usually seeing a surplus. The forecast for the whole year of 2024 is E163.2bln, and this print is a notably smaller deficit than the Jan-Nov 2023 period (E198.0bln).
  • The balance of special accounts' deteriorated to -E22.5bln (vs -10.3bln in October 2024, and -E21.9bln in November 2023), leaving the current YTD balance more than 4 times where it is forecast to stand between Jan-Dec 2024 (at -E5.6bln), though this is in line with seasonal trends, with the account usually improving in December.
  • YTD revenue rose to E312.0bln in November 2024 vs E297.1bln in Jan-Nov 2023, taking the YTD receipts to 90% of forecast (compared to 84% in Nov 2023).
    • This is driven largely by a timing, rather than a fundamental issue. Non-tax revenues remain significantly above 2023 YTD levels recording E19.7bln in November and 83% of 2024 total forecast (vs E10.9bln in Jan-Nov 2023 and 44% of 2023 total). This is because of an EU RRF payment was received earlier in the year compared to 2023 (June rather than December).
    • Tax revenues YTD are marginally above Jan-Nov 2023 receipts at E285.4bln (88% of 2024 forecast; vs E280.0bln in Nov 2023 and 87% of 2023 total).
  • YTD total expenditure was E462.1bln (vs E473.2bln YTD in November 2023), this represents 91% of the 2024 total expenditure forecast forecast, broadly in line with where it stood in November last year (90% of total).
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The French YTD general government budget deficit widened to E172.5bln in November. The November YTD deficit stands at 105.7% of the 2024 forecast deficit by the French Ministry of Finance (vs 114% in Jan-Nov of 2023's outturn).

  • Note that November usually marks the low point of the year with the month of December usually seeing a surplus. The forecast for the whole year of 2024 is E163.2bln, and this print is a notably smaller deficit than the Jan-Nov 2023 period (E198.0bln).
  • The balance of special accounts' deteriorated to -E22.5bln (vs -10.3bln in October 2024, and -E21.9bln in November 2023), leaving the current YTD balance more than 4 times where it is forecast to stand between Jan-Dec 2024 (at -E5.6bln), though this is in line with seasonal trends, with the account usually improving in December.
  • YTD revenue rose to E312.0bln in November 2024 vs E297.1bln in Jan-Nov 2023, taking the YTD receipts to 90% of forecast (compared to 84% in Nov 2023).
    • This is driven largely by a timing, rather than a fundamental issue. Non-tax revenues remain significantly above 2023 YTD levels recording E19.7bln in November and 83% of 2024 total forecast (vs E10.9bln in Jan-Nov 2023 and 44% of 2023 total). This is because of an EU RRF payment was received earlier in the year compared to 2023 (June rather than December).
    • Tax revenues YTD are marginally above Jan-Nov 2023 receipts at E285.4bln (88% of 2024 forecast; vs E280.0bln in Nov 2023 and 87% of 2023 total).
  • YTD total expenditure was E462.1bln (vs E473.2bln YTD in November 2023), this represents 91% of the 2024 total expenditure forecast forecast, broadly in line with where it stood in November last year (90% of total).
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